Lecture 15 October 2024
When I was a senior in high school, I had a catch all class titled “Psychology.” It had very little to do with psychology but did deal with a wide variety of subjects. One was ‘how to take a test.’ I would have appreciated it more if it had been given about four years earlier. There are four types of test questions, true or false, multiple choice, fill in the blank and essay. The test taking method given was to ‘read the question.’ If you know the answer, put it down and go to the next question. If you are not sure of the answer eliminate answers you know are wrong. If you have read the subject matter your first impression is probably the correct answer. This goes for both multiple choice and true and false. It might also be true for the fill in the blank questions. Fill in the blank and essay questions usually require some knowledge of the subject.
I was not ready for the test I had in college psychology. I recall the instructor told us to do our best, read the test instructions and good luck. You only had one hour to answer 12 small essay questions. I scanned the test quickly. A quick scan of the instructions which appeared to be the same as they always were. In less than two minutes one student turned his paper in and walked out. We all thought he failed. As the rest of us toiled down the page we came to realize that he was the only one in the class who was assured of having passed the test. The last line of the instructions told us to go to question 12. Question 12 said to put your name at the head of the paper and turn it in. “See you next week.” It wasn’t really a test but a lesson’
Polls. Polls can tell you a lot of things, most of which are questionable. In my poli sci class, we learned that one of the Chicago newspapers reported that Governor Dewey of New York had won the Presidential election in 1948. The polls predicted he would win, and polls were always right. The next morning President Truman was announced as the winner. Dewey was a Republican and Truman was a Democrat. How could the polls have gotten it so wrong?
My Marketing textbook had a section that was very interesting. In the late 1960s Ford was set to introduce a new automobile. The concept was to keep it reasonable, to allow the buyer to modify it by selecting various options and keep it sporty. Ford had developed a advertising campaign introducing the brand new Ford Torino. Six months before the launch someone at Ford asked if just maybe they had got it wrong. A research campaign was initiated, prospective buyers were shown drawings of the new model and given a list of names to pick from. The overwhelming response was “It’s a Mustang.” Two years later Ford discovered that they had gotten the buying target wrong too. They were targeting the recent college graduate, but those people weren’t buying the cars because their fathers were buying them. A few years later Ford introduced the Torino. It was modeled on the Italian shoe, long sloping hood and a short rear deck.
Polls and marketing research are essentially the same. Both require that the questions being asked must not introduce any form of prejudice. The respondent should have no hint as to what the pollster or researcher would like their response to be.
A real poll must be sure that the group being asked to respond is truly representative of the target. So how did the poll in 1948 get it so wrong? First the poll was conducted by the Chicago newspaper, a paper with known Republican leanings. Secondly, those conducting the poll did it on the telephone. In 1948 generally only the wealthy could afford a phone. Republicans tend to be wealthy.
Polling has improved since 1948. Along the way we have learned that only those who want to respond will respond. Also, some respondents will answer with what they expect the questioner wants to hear and not necessarily what they believe. And some people will flat out lie just to get the questioning over with.
Immigration. “Why don’t you go back to where you came from?” If we all did that the Americas would be totally devoid of people. There is no evidence that man evolved in the Americas. We are all immigrants or the descendants of immigrants. This nation has been built on the backs of immigrants. Each wave entered our society at the lowest rungs. They did and still do the jobs that have to be done but most of us don’t want to do.
Do we have an immigration problem? Yes, but we are not alone. Every country with a relatively high standard of living faces the same problem we face. We live in the greatest country on Earth, built entirely on the back of immigrants. We are “the light beside the golden door.”
November 5th is election day. Thousands of our fellow American brothers and sisters gave the greatest sacrifice to protect and preserve the rights we enjoy. We owe it to them to exercise those rights and not only to them but to our future generations. You have the right to vote, it is also an obligation.
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